Coming to a Planet Near You? Dark Ages 2.0
“Current climate policies risk catastrophic societal and economic impacts.”
The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries. Sounds pretty vague and staid and stuffy, doesn’t it?
It’s not.
The group, based in the United Kingdom, is out with a hard hitting set of projections about climate change. It’s called “Planetary Insolvency: Finding Our Balance with Nature. Global Risk Management for Human Prosperity.”
Now, you’ve heard of business insolvency, right? That’s staid and stuffy.
But in its new study, the Institute leaps to a dramatic recasting of the term. Planet Earth itself is becoming insolvent.
The Earth. Insolvent. As in broke. Busted. Bankrupt.
“If (climate change is left) unchecked, then mass mortality, involuntary mass migration events and severe GDP contractions are likely.”
Talk about stark.
Here are some of the group’s specific projections:
Economic contraction, GDP loss of over 25%
Mass human mortality events resulting in over 2 billion deaths
Severe socio-political fragmentation in many regions, low lying regions lost.
Heat and water stress driving mass migration of billions.
Catastrophic mortality events from disease, nutrition, thirst and conflict.
Some outlooks and recommendations:
It will be overwhelmingly positive economically to avoid Planetary Insolvency. An urgent policy response is required as our current market led approach to mitigating climate and nature risks is not delivering.
(Mark that well: remediation will be an economic PLUS, not a minus. Note, too, the premise and projection that market-based solutions won’t work.)
Ironically, one business tool in particular should be brought to bear: risk management. That’s a striking suggestion. I’ve not heard it from any other quarter.
Consider... the need for systemic risk officers at supra-national, national and sub-national levels to enhance systemic risk management capability. … Develop... appropriate tracking of delivery of solutions to mitigate risk, including oversight of progress, clear accountability and near-term goals.
Catastrophic climate change. Unimaginable levels of migration. Untold suffering. Two billion dead.
Apart from nuclear annihilation, I cannot think of a more dire or dystopian circumstance.
And yet. And yet.
Climate change is something that the international community can mitigate -- if only there were to be the will to do so.
Ultimately, it’s up to the citizens of the world – individually at first, joining into groups and finally morphing into unstoppable forces for good – that will effectuate the change we need.
Background:
https://actuaries.org.uk/document-library/thought-leadership/thought-leadership-campaigns/climate-papers/planetary-solvency-risks-and-recommendations/
https://actuaries.org.uk/document-library/thought-leadership/thought-leadership-campaigns/climate-papers/planetary-solvency-finding-our-balance-with-nature/